Total U.S. Automotive Aftermarket Sales Expected To Rise 11.2% In 2021

Total U.S. light-duty automotive aftermarket sales are forecast to increase 11.2% in 2021 totaling $325 billion, according to the 2021 Joint Channel Forecast Model produced by AASA and the Auto Care Association. An additional 5.3% growth is expected for 2022 with growth averaging more than 4% in 2023 and 2024, bringing the light-duty aftermarket to $372 billion.

“The aftermarket has once again proved its toughness, and the pandemic affected the aftermarket less severely than other industries and even less than forecasted within our own industry,” said Paul McCarthy, president and COO of AASA. “The Joint Channel Forecast shows that the continued success and resilience of the aftermarket will only continue in upcoming years. Right now, aftermarket suppliers are dealing with the challenging impacts of a boom, including supply chain disruptions, yet the forecast shows continued strength for the aftermarket well into the future.”

“Increased reliance on personal transportation, coupled with shifts in consumer purchase and maintenance behavior, primes the aftermarket for continued growth,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO of the Auto Care Association. “The pace at which consumers return to normal mobility patterns will also dictate the future growth of our industry. Indicators suggest that consumers will continue to hold on to their older vehicles, which creates further opportunity for the aftermarket. COVID-19, while a challenge, was a catalyst for many of the tailwinds we’re experiencing today.”

The market sizing and forecasting are conducted by IHS Markit on behalf of the associations. The forecast is based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Economic Census; IMR Inc.; and proprietary data, economic analysis and forecasting models from IHS Markit. Key data in the Joint Channel Forecast Model include …
• Market trends influencing the aftermarket.
• A 2020-‘24 review of industry growth and forecasts.
• Industry sales by channel, including history and forecasts.
• Industry sales by distribution channel.

Source: The Greensheet, Issue #23-21, 6/21/21