The U.S. auto care industry consists of the light vehicle, medium and heavy-duty truck markets. Having weathered the 2008-2009 economic downturn, this $392 billion industry is expected to reach $433 billion by 2021. The automotive sector is expected to lead the upturn with sales of $326.7 billion by 2021., followed by the medium and heavy-duty market with $106.6 billion in sales.
This forecast is the product of the Auto Care Association and Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) Channel Forecast Model. The Channel Forecast Model is predicting a 3.4 percent compounded annual growth for the auto care industry through 2021. By comparison, nominal GDP growth should peak in 2019 at 5.5 percent before cooling a bit in the outbound years through 2021.
The auto care industry experienced a mild decline in sales during the 2008-2009 economic downturn. But starting in 2012, the industry rebounded to strong annual growth (see chart). While this growth rate slowed to 3.1 percent in 2017, it is projected to average 3.4 percent through 2021. (See page 12 of the Auto Care Factbook 2019 for more details.)
Source: Auto Care Insider, Vol. 111, “Find it in the Factbook” autocare.org